Air Force Voices

BRAC Opinions

There are many opinions on the BRAC recommendations.  I hear many snickers and comments in the countless meetings/sidebar conversations I attend each day.  BRAC is one of many other issues/topics facing the Air Force the troops are talking about.

Mike, a longtime reader and friend of Air Force Voice has a great post regarding BRAC on his weblog No Angst Zone.  It is definitely worth reading.

I welcome your comments!

Note: Comments on AFV are generally posted in their entirety.  Lately, I have had to moderate comments and screen several due to some "undesirable" elements/weblinks embedded within these comments.  If you submit a comment, I will read it and publish within editorial guidelines..this may not happen right away...but I want to thank you for your patience in advance.

Let the Games Begin...BRAC List Is Out

By now you have all seen the BRAC list.  Now the "fun" starts (see previous posts here and here).  Watch for lots of political "positioning" and "backslapping" over the summer.

If you haven't seen the entire list by state as well as which bases are gaining jobs and which ones are being realigned (as opposed to closed entirely)...here is the file.

Bottom line:  It appears to be a pretty decent list.  No real surprises. 

Here is what FoxNews is reporting:

Aside from the 33 bases recommended for closure, another 29 based are being recommended for realignment. More than 775 other smaller military installations, including National Guard and Reserve facilities, will also be closed or realigned, according to the recommendations...

...White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters Friday that the president was aware of the base closures and said the administration supports the process established by the Defense Department as to what happens next.

"This is the recommendation by the secretary of defense. There is a process in place, and there are steps in the process. It will now go to the [BRAC] commission. Then it will go to the president after that," McClellan said.

McClellan said base closings are a necessary, if painful, part of transforming the military into a force matched to modern demands.

"We want to make sure that our troops, particularly those in combat, have all the resources they need to do their job," he said. But the White House, well aware of the dread in many communities, is focused on helping affected towns move on, with federal assistance available through the Defense, Labor and Commerce departments, he said.

There is lots more detail on the Official DoD BRAC website.

A few things now that I think about it:

First, remember, previous BRAC commissions have accepted 85 percent of bases the Pentagon recommended for closure or consolidation.  That means there will be fight this summer for as much as 15% of whatever is left.  Watch the politics and if you see any changes on the list, ask yourself, "what else is going on/what is being traded?" 

Likely trades:

• A crucial vote on the filibuster
• A nominee to the federal bench, U.N. or other post
• Social Security Reform
• A controversial bill (energy, transportation or immigration)
• A crucial spending bill (budget)
• Supplemental appropriation for the Global War on Terror

Second, I understand the government is supposed to "save" $48.8 billion over 20 years...heh heh heh.  Does anyone remember what happened to the $29 billion "saved" in previous BRAC rounds?  Anyone?  Bueller, Bueller?

Does anyone remember it ended up costing the government more money to clean up the bases they closed (i.e., environmental restoration) before they could be turned over to the communities.

Third, is the $48 billion in current-year or then-year dollars?  Even if you use the standard 3% government inflation rate for O&M...it doesn't really matter because it is all funny money anyway...will your tax bill be any less?

I don't mean to sound cynical.  In fact, I think the BRAC is a great thing to do.  Remember how I feel about both effectiveness and efficiency (see previous post).  We need to close these bases and realign others. 

I just have to snicker when I hear about the government "saving" money or that this BRAC process will limit the amount of politics being played.  Stay tuned for more.

Start BRACing Yourself

The BRAC Commissioners were sworn in yesterday...and so begins the race (or fight) to defend, cut, consolidate or expand bases.  Expect lots of politicking and back room deals to be made.   

Eric Schmitt of the NYT offers a harbinger of things to come.  Note: he tees up the fear factor in the opening paragraph.  (Here is an excerpt):

The chairman of the independent commission that will review the Pentagon's list of recommended military base closings warned Tuesday that the impending decisions would be "tsunamis in the communities they hit."

The chairman, Anthony J. Principi, a former secretary of veterans affairs, also promised to provide a "clear-eyed reality check" of the Defense Department's decisions to close or consolidate military bases around the country.

Later on in the article, Schmitt offers this gem (emphasis added)...

Panel members and their staff said they had little inkling of what Mr. Rumsfeld would recommend. The Pentagon has sought to clamp down on information leaks by requiring hundreds of employees involved in the process over the last two years to sign secrecy oaths.

A top Pentagon official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the oaths, said that there were working lists of proposed base closings and realignments circulating at senior levels but that Mr. Rumsfeld had not yet been briefed on a final set of recommendations.

Yeah, right!  Mr. Rumsfeld is driving this train...he doesn't need to be briefed...he'll simply tell the senior levels what they should recommend.  I am sure panel members know where this is headed as well.

{This isn't a slam on Mr. Rumsfeld...it is just the way he has operated since day one...get over it...it is how he keeps politics out of the game as much as possible}

Which leads me to wonder how many "top Pentagon officials" speaking on "condition of anonymity" will leak information in order to get around Mr. Rumsfeld (or by Mr. Rumsfeld himself).  We already know trial balloons, signals (both threatening and reassuring), and information will be leaked all summer long.  We could almost start a count on the number of references to an "anonymous source"...though it would be pointless.

The sad part is lots of people will lose jobs and communities will be severely affected in the short term (expect lots of heart-wrenching stories)...even though the military does need to trim some of the excess (about 25 percent or 100+ bases). 

The article does point out that several of the communities in the last BRAC have regained about 85% of the jobs lost.  Though recovery has not been easy...it is another data point to consider.

The overall question is how does one determine which bases get cut?  This was an item of discussion at dinner during last week's TDY...even we couldn't agree on which bases needed to be closed.  Thus, heavy politics will come into play.

So, get your popcorn and soda ready and watch as this political play unfolds.  It will also be interesting to see which bases the various members of the MSM/DNC support and which ones it does not...to see if there is alignment with a certain Congressional district. 

In any case, it is going to be a bumpy ride to say the least...stay tuned.

Senatorial Threats

USA Today has a small article on page six today (HT: Early Bird) with Senator Lott's remarks on the President's recess appointments to the BRAC Commission.  Here is an excerpt (emphasis added):

"Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., said he is not finished trying to halt this year's planned closure of domestic military bases even though President Bush thwarted his latest attempt."

“'I have options on unrelated issues,' said Lott, who had prevented a Senate vote to confirm a member of the commission that will recommend which bases to close."

"President Bush put all the commissioners in office last month when senators were on vacation. The Constitution allows a president to fill vacancies when the Senate is in recess. “I used my right to hold a nominee. They used their right to a recess appointment. I'm disappointed in that…but we'll deal with that when the time comes,” Lott said."

I wonder what that means?  This is a definitely a threat...what does Senator Lott know or have that he could use against the President? 

This is something to keep watching.

BRAC Delay?

Amy Klamper of the National Journal's Congress Daily reports that Senator Lott may use his power to hold up the nomination of former Veteran Affairs Secretary Principi to chair the BRAC panel.  In her 31 March column, Klamper reports:

"Lott also intends to place holds on each of the remaining eight BRAC Commission nominees, who have yet to appear before the Armed Services Committee for their confirmation hearings...

...Congressional sources say Lott's potential to hold up the commission nominees poses a serious risk to the BRAC process. A staunch opponent of BRAC, Lott joined other lawmakers last year in a failed bid to delay the 2005 base closure round by two years with an amendment to the FY05 defense authorization bill. This year, if he does hold up the remaining nominations, Lott could rob commission of the little time it will have to review the Pentagon's base closure recommendations. Once the Pentagon's list is submitted to commission members May 16, they will have until Sept. 8 to review the list and propose changes."

What is going on?  Here are two articles in the Clarion Ledger and the Sun Herald regarding Naval Station Pascagoula.  Politics-politics.

UPDATE:  Eric Schmitt has an AP story in the NYT which reports President Bush sidestepped procedural tactics and made recess appointments to the commission.  Here is an excerpt:

"In an unusual rebuke of a senior senator from his own party, President Bush announced on Friday that by making recess appointments he had completed creation of a nine-member independent commission to review the Pentagon's list of proposed base closings this year..."

"...But Mr. Bush dashed any plan Mr. Lott may have had to stymie the process, a precursor to the first major round of base closings in a decade, by appointing members to the panel while the Senate was in its spring recess, thus eliminating the requirement of Senate confirmation. The appointments expire at the end of the Senate's session next year, long after the panel is scheduled to finish its work."

Although it is highly unusual to use the recess appointment tactic against a fellow Republican, something needed to be done.  Air Force Voices applauds the move.

BRAC Update

National Journal's Congress Daily has a 23 March post by Amy Klamper that details several replacements on the BRAC Commission (HT: Early Bird).  Here is an excerpt:

"So far, questions regarding conflicts of interest have been raised against two Bush nominees. Both retired Navy Adm. Harold Gehman of Virginia and Philip Coyle of California served on state task forces working to keep installations open during the 2005 BRAC process.

The White House has said it might replace two othernominees: retired Army Lt. Gen. Claude Kicklighter, a Georgia native, and retired Army Gen. John Coburn, a Kentucky native. A possible replacement for Kicklighter is Pratt & Whitney Vice President Lloyd (Fig) Newton, a former Air Force general touted by Connecticut politicians, according to New London's The Day, a newspaper published in an area dependent on the Navy's Groton submarine base."

The title of Klamper's post is "Getting Seat On BRAC No Guarantee Of Success For States."  The article further points out:

"Daniel Else, a defense analyst and base closure expert at the Congressional Research Service, points out commissioners are chosen on their independence and qualifications. "They're supposed to be above all of this," Else said."

I agree with the article.  The decisions made by the commission will be held up to scrutiny and will likely follow the DoD recommendation anyway.  However, for as much effort is put into preventing political influence in the process...I do not believe politics will be kept out of this round...remember what Clinton did during the last round?

Let the deals begin...

This cuts across DoD

A few items of interest to all DoD members and supporters:

First, in BRAC news:  The BRAC Panel has been named. Dave Montgomery of Knight-Ridder News Service (HT: Aim Points)

"Headed by former Veterans Affairs Secretary Anthony Principi, the commission could recommend cutting or realigning up to a fourth of the nation's estimated 450 major military installations, the biggest round of base closings since World War II. President Bush and Congress must ratify its recommendations.

Bush submitted the list of nominees in response to a congressional mandate creating the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Commission. The commissioners are expected to be confirmed easily by the Senate."

The nominees are:

"In addition to Principi, the nominees are former Rep. James Bilbray, D-Nev.; Clinton administration Assistant Defense Secretary Philip Coyle; retired Adm. Harold Gehman Jr.; former Rep. James Hansen, R-Utah; retired Army Gens. James Hill and Claude Kicklighter; George H.W. Bush administration Transportation Secretary Samuel Skinner of Illinois; and retired Air Force Gen. Sue Ellen Turner of Texas."

There is an interesting point in the article regarding the return of nearly 70,000 troops and 100,000 dependents from overseas in Korea and Europe...where to put them?

Also there is a BRAC timeline at the bottom of the article...Go read the story.

Second, regarding the Joint Strike Fighter: The GAO has called the JSF program "unexecutable."  Renae Merle of the WaPo has the story (you need to register for free access to WaPo) (HT: Aim Points)

Basically, the JSF program needs a $10 billion dollar increase:

"Nearly half the increase, $4.9 billion, is needed to lower the aircraft's weight because being heavier hurt "the aircraft's key performance capabilities," the report said. The Pentagon said more money was also needed to add anti-tampering technology to keep sensitive technology safe."

"The fighter was designed to be a low-cost replacement to the Air Force's F-16, with different versions being developed for the Navy, Marine Corps and British forces."

More details in the article.  Keep a watch on this program.

Finally, thinking of my space weapons school friends (who are in town for their conference): Walter Pincus of the WaPo reports on Pentagon is working to develop a suborbital space capsule by 2010 (no HT to Aim Points on this one).

"This year, the Falcon program will test a launcher for its Common Aero Vehicle (CAV), an unmanned maneuverable spacecraft that would travel at five times the speed of sound and could carry 1,000 pounds of munitions, intelligence sensors or other payloads. Among the system's strengths is that commanders could order a CAV -- an unpowered glide vehicle -- not to release its payload if they decided not to follow through with an attack."

Sounds pretty cool...space launch is the challenge.  I wonder what else DARPA is working on or has in mind?

The article has some great quotes from Commander of Air Force Space Command and other potential uses for space.  Go read the article.

Stay tuned.

Update: BRAC-next

Aim Points has this article from CQ Today's Anne Plummer: 

"President Bush is expected within a week to finish naming members of the nine-person commission that will determine which U.S. military bases will be shut down."

"On March 4, Bush nominated former Veterans Affairs Secretary Anthony J. Principi to chair the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) commission."

For more articles on BRAC (particularly local articles) go to Google News and type "BRAC" into the search engine. 

It would also be interesting to see if there are any related spikes on the blogosphere regarding this issue.  I'll keep my eyes open.

Here comes BRAC-next

Public Affairs officials are going to be busy...this is a hot potato that could rapidly spin out of control (at least in the short term) as community leaders and politicians strive to get ahead of the message. 

Today's Message on Aim Points highlights this challenge.  (Update: 7:22--Guess someone changed the message to PAs...hmm...interesting) 

Anyway, go to the DoD BRAC website for some information.

USA Today also has an opinion in today's edition (HT: RealClearPolitics)

I agree there are some major questions that need to be addressed...and also some bases that need to be closed. 

How many wing PAs (many are new captains) remember the last round of BRAC?  Are wing PAs ready?  How will public affairs officials (MAJCOM level and above) handle likely opinion storms, given new media?  Are you ready?

A simple media plan may not be enough.  This will be interesting to watch.